October 09, 2017
Houston – The U.S. economy has enjoyed a stable, long-term growth track, yet remains vulnerable to federal dysfunction or aggressive Fed moves. In the latest edition of “the BRIEFING,” Transwestern Chief Investment Officer Tom McNearney outlines the positive fundamentals but warns that tensions remain regarding government funding and borrowing.
“In September, the possibility of another government shutdown and default disrupted pricing of short-term securities under looming deadlines, and this is an issue that will need to be revisited before the new deadline of Dec. 8,” said McNearney. “Meanwhile, the markets continue to prosper despite dysfunction in Washington, underscoring that the primary economic risk today is geopolitical.”
August marked 83 consecutive months of U.S. job growth, the longest run on record. Pervasive economic progress spurred the International Monetary Fund to raise its global growth projection to 3.6 percent for 2018, up from 3.2 percent in 2016. Although real estate assets appear fully priced, they are supported by property fundamentals, growth in corporate profits and jobs. Corporate spreads over the 10-year Treasury yield remain healthy at 250-plus basis points, and consumer and business sentiment are at all-time highs.
“The Federal Reserve Bank and European Central Bank are taking a measured approach to normalizing rates and sovereign balance sheets, and with good reason,” McNearney said. “While the majority of tightening cycles the Fed has initiated since World War II landed the economy in recession, this cycle could be one of the exceptions given a lack of inflation and meaningful wage growth.”
Download the full report, including 20 fast facts for the big picture, at http://twurls.com/briefing0917
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